Wise investors can spot a downturn coming, such as the one in late 2007. No one really knows how bad a downturn is really going to be, but a wise investor should know when to shift from capital appreciation mode to capital protection mode. Below are the things you can do to protect your stock and real estate assets in a downturn.

Protecting Your Stock Portfolio

• Sell your stock: If you think we are going to have a down turn, sell your stock holdings and return to cash until there is more clarity about what is happening in the economy.
• Hedge you portfolio: Add some short positions to protect against declines.
• Buy options: Unlike Real Estate it is very easy to purchase an insurance policy against a decline in your stock value. This is called a put option. For a small fee you can purchase a put option that will protect against a decline in your stock holdings.

Protecting Your Real Estate

• Sell: First thing you can do is put your property on the market. You have to make sure you have enough equity to pay the selling costs and you have to make sure you can find a buyer. If you are scared enough to sell your property there most likely are not many buyers out there.
• Lock In Your Tenants: Get rid of the risky tenants, and replace them with good tenants, (the ones with good stable jobs), on longer term leases.
• Start Building A Reserve Fund: When owning Real Estate you need to be doing this anyway but you should start adding more to the reserves to help cover longer periods of loss rent.

When a downturn is coming, within seconds I can protect my stock assets, and within weeks (and maybe not at all) I can protect my Real Estate assets. One thing I am not mentioning here is a down turn in the stock market can be hard and fast, while a down turn in a real estate market will be slower giving you more time. What I am saying here, is use the different strengths to protect your net worth to the fullest.

I will close this posting off with a personal example. In late January 2007, I realized (through indicators in the stock market, not the Real Estate market), that the world was about ready to slow right down. I quickly moved my stock holdings to cash, and began some hedging. I also put much of my Real Estate on the market. Within seconds I protected my stock asset class, and began the process of protecting my Real Estate assets. The bad news was I was unable to sell my Real Estate. After sometime, my properties dropped in value below my loan amounts which meant I could not sell the property, without doing a short sale (where the bank agrees to take less to settle your loan). You might say you had tenants so who cares, and the tenants were paying the mortgage. While this was true in some cases but what really happened was it became increasingly harder to find tenants. My vacancy rates were raising and rents began to drop. Within 8 months of the economy going upside down, I was left with Real Estate I could not sell because the value dropped below my loan value, and they were not cash flow positive because rents had gone down and vacancy rates increased.

In this real example lets look at the positions my assets were in at the end of 2008. I had a Real Estate portfolio that had more debt than value, and it was cash flow negative (which means I was keeping the Real Estate bills paid with other income). Now, lets look at the stock portfolio. Since I sold all my stocks I was sitting on a pile of cash. While this cash did not increase in value throughout this time period it did not go down in value nor did it cost me anything to hold on to it. In my case I used some of the cash to keep my Real Estate afloat. Had I been 100% in Real Estate there would be a good chance I would have had to file bankruptcy because I did not have the cash from the stock sales to subsidize my Real Estate.

By paying attention to the stock market I was able to see early indicators of the economy going upside down, and I was able to protect my overall portfolio of assets far better than if I had been in all Real Estate. While the direct control of Real Estate has it clear advantages, do not discount the power of being able to liquidate your assets on a moments notice. Just having the simple ability to liquidate can outweigh the hands on nature of Real Estate.

First of all lets clear somethings up. When I say Real Estate investment I am not talking about your home, or a vacation home. Those have personal emotional aspects; you need a home to live in and you love staying at your ski condo on the weekends. I label these assets as personal property, there is a luxury element you may or may not be paying up for. I am talking about the rental property you purchase, to collect rent, or even flip.

Second thing I want to clear up, I am giving general statements and rough numbers in this blog series. With any investment there is always another side, another stat, another point of view. I get that. This is what makes markets if we all thought the same way no one would buy or sell anything. This is just one man’s view. I hope you can share you view points in the comments below.

Lastly, I am not talk to the people that do this for a living. If you are a Real Estate Developer, or a hedge fund manager you have built a business around a particular asset class. While I think every point I am going to make applies 100% to you as well you can make a business case against some of my statements and I might agree with you.

Now, that we have that stuff out of the way lets look at what it takes to buy property.

• You have to identify an area that you would like to invest in.
• You have have to set some bounds, (I can afford X, and it must produce Y in rent….).
• You have to start reviewing all the properties in the area. Might even hire a broker to show you around and give you his or her thoughts.
• Then you find a property you like and you start diving deep into it. Doing way more homework on this particular property than any other one you reviewed.
• If it passes all the tests, you buy it (often with a little help from your bank).
• Now, you start working on your thesis. Fix it up, get tenants, collect rent, whatever else.
• You keep it up until it is time to sell and take your profits. Investment over.

Now, lets take a look at what goes into a stock investment.

• You identify the sector you would like to purchase (tech, banks, retail….).
• You set your bounds (how much you want to spend, dividend, PE, and so on….).
• You start reviewing all the companies in that sector. Might even hire a broker or pay an analyst to help you.
• You pick the stock you think you might want to buy. You then go in and do tons more homework just to make sure.
• If your stock passes the test you buy it, (you can even buy on margin like you would with a real estate loan).
• Now, you watch your stock. Daily, weekly, monthly; You continue to review it to make sure your reason for buying it still holds true, and you are still collecting the dividend you purchased it for.
• When the time comes you sell it and take your profits. Investment over.

Is it just me or are those two processes nearly the same? They both have about the same set of interactions. You really need the same skill sets to purchase either a stock or an investment property. You need to understand the markets, you need to understand financials, you need to understand risk, you need to have continued management over your investment. I am going to make the case in a later blog posting that I believe you are a fool if you purchase an investment property or a stock without fully understanding the other market. I am also going to make a case that you are a fool if you do not have exposure to both asset classes in your portfolio. I don’t mean to be calling people fools but I have studied these differences to death and am an active investor in both asset classes and now I am preaching my thoughts . More to come soon!

Just Get Off Your Butt And Start Building

Don’t Discount Anything, Learn/Do It All